According to a report compiled by the Material Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in Japan, paraxylene, a material for producing PTA, is expected to be in oversupply of 2.8 million tons in 2021.
The oversupply forecast is because the increase in production (14-million-ton increase between 2015 and 2021) is likely to exceed the growth in demand (10.2-million-ton growth), and the excess demand situation in 2015 is becoming something of the past. Meanwhile, the excess demand situation in China, the largest consumer, is forecast to reach 14.9 million tons.
Global paraxylene demand is expected to grow from 38.8 million tons in 2015 to 49.0 million tons in 2021. With the production capacity growing at an annual average rate of 2.8%, production is projected to increase from 37.9 million tons to 51.9 million tons. As a result, the excess demand situation of 1 million tons seen in 2015 is expected to turn into an oversupply situation.
In China, which accounts for more than half of global demand, demand is expected to grow from 20 million tons to 29.7 million tons. Although production is forecast to increase from 8.2 million tons to 14.8 million tons, the increase in production cannot keep up with the growth of demand, thus the excess demand situation in China, which was 11.9 million tons in 2015, is likely to become even greater.
Worldwide PTA demand is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 4.4% from 54.7 million tons to 71 million tons, and production is expected to increase from 53.6 million tons to 72.5 million tons (5.1% annual average growth). The supply-demand balance is likely to change from excess demand of 1.1 million tons to an oversupply of 1.5 million tons in 2021.
China’s PTA demand is expected to grow from 28.3 million tons to 40.6 million tons (6.2% annual average growth), and production is to increase from 28.2 million tons to 42.2 million tons (6.9% annual average growth). Accordingly, the supply-demand situation is likely to shift from excess demand of 100,000 tons to an oversupply of 1.6 million tons.