The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2020/21 (August-July) indicate that global cotton ending stocks are forecast at their highest in 6 years.
World stocks are projected to rise for the second consecutive season in 2020/21 to 104.7 million bales, 4% above 2019/20 and the second largest on record behind 2014/15. Global stocks totaled 106.7 million bales at the end of 2014/15, with China accounting for 62% of the total as government policies there resulted in surplus stock accumulations. As subsequent policies reduced China’s stocks, the share of global cotton supplies for other countries increased in recent years.
For 2020/21, cotton stocks in China are forecast lower at 35.6 million bales, 34% of the world total. Meanwhile, stocks outside of China are expected to rise 9% to 69.1 million bales, with stock gains for India and the U.S. over the past 2 years leading the increase.
For India, stocks are projected to reach a record 21.1 million bales (20% of the total) in 2020/21, resulting from large crops and reduced demand.
For the U.S., cotton stocks are forecast at 8.0 million bales (8% of the total), the highest since 2007/08.
